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Thursday, November 26, 2009

Unemployment report

The major currency pairs teetered within a close range in the Friday session, whipsawing sharply following the release of the October US unemployment report. The euro slid from above the 1.49-level to a session low at 1.4814 while the yen jumped to 89.62 against the greenback.The October labor report was worst than expected, with the unemployment rate climbing to a fresh 26-year high at 10.2% versus 9.8% from September. The non-farm payrolls figure revealed a loss of 190k jobs in October, worst than the forecasted loss of 175k jobs from a downwardly revised September reading of 219k jobs lost. The worst than estimated jobs data sent US equity futures lower and pushed the greenbackThe dollar was mixed against the majors, climbing higher against the euro to 1.4628 but sliding versus the British pound past the 1.64-level to 1.6419. Spot gold rose to a new record high above the $1,080-mark to $1,083.50 per ounce while crude oil continued to trade beneath $80-per barrel. The US economic reports released earlier today saw September durable goods and factory orders. The headline durable goods orders increased by 1.4% in September versus 1.0% previously, while the ex-transportations figure rose by 1.2% from 0.9% in August. Meanwhile, factory orders reversed the 0.8% decline in August, increasing by 0.9%. The key highlight on Wednesday will be the ADP private sector payrolls, which are seen improving to reflect a loss of 188.0k jobs in October from 254.0k jobs a month earlier. Also due out tomorrow will be the October non-manufacturing ISM report, estimated to improve to 51.8 from 50.9 in September. higher on a shift from riskier assets. The dollar surged against the majors in early Tuesday trading, rallying to 1.4789 against the euro and 1.6287 versus the British pound. The catalyst for the greenback’s advance was earlier weaker-than-expected US economic data, prompting heightened risk aversion and a shift from riskier assets. Spot gold and crude oil both traded lower, easing to $1,036 per ounce and dipping below the $80 per barrel level to $79. The major US equity bourses were largely flat on the session, with the Dow Jones hovering just above the 9,900-mark. There were several key economic releases earlier in the session, including August Case-Shiller home prices, the October Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey and the October Richmond Fed manufacturing index. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence survey for October sharply missed consensus estimates for an improvement to 54.3, instead tumbling to 47.7 from 53.1 in September. The disappointing confidence indicator sent the dollar sharply higher as traders dumped riskier assets for the safe-haven play. The calendar for Wednesday consists of September durable goods orders and new home sales.

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